History is in danger of repeating itself for the Whites after an alarming dip in form at the worst possible time
On March 17, 2024, Leeds United went top of the Championship after a comfortable 2-0 win over Millwall at Elland Road. That result extended their unbeaten run to 13 games, with just one draw included in that sequence, and at that stage it seemed a decent bet that Daniel Farke's side would secure automatic promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
Unfortunately, everything changed after the international break. Leeds were held to a 2-2 draw away at Watford in their first game back, and only won two of their next seven matches, with the biggest low point coming in the form of a 4-0 hammering at QPR.
Leeds had to settle for the play-offs in the end, and that process just brought more heartbreak. After seeing off Norwich City impressively in the semi-finals, the Whites choked in the final at Wembley, losing 1-0 to Southampton, and were subsequently unable to keep hold of star trio Crysencio Summerville, Archie Gray and Georginio Rutter.
Speculation over Farke's future was rife, too, especially after the German admitted "it will be difficult to come back stronger", but Leeds stuck with the man they'd handed a four-year contract to the previous year. Fast-forward to the present, though, and supporters must be feeling like cast members in 'Groundhog Day'.
Leeds are very much back in the mix for a top-two finish, but their form has dropped off a cliff again when it really matters. Now, Farke must galvanise his troops before it's too late, with his job very much on the line entering a season-defining seven-game period…
Getty Images SportHuge victory marred by injury
Some of the Leeds players may have been planning a Championship title party in their heads as early as February 24. Farke's side followed up a dramatic comeback win against Sunderland with more late heroics to see off main promotion rivals Sheffield United 3-1 at Bramall Lane, which saw them move five points clear at the summit and seven ahead of third-place Burnley.
Farke, however, refused to get carried away. "Each and every point brings us closer to where we want to finish, but you have to keep going," he told a post-match press conference. "We're seven points clear of third before this round of matches and we are seven points clear now. In this league the momentum can change quickly and you can need some luck."
The cautious tone in Farke's voice had a lot to do with the loss of club captain Ethan Ampadu, who sat out the trip to Sheffield after damaging the cartilage in one of his knees. The Leeds boss added when pressed for an update on the former Chelsea midfielder: "He won't be available for the upcoming games at least. He more or less didn't miss a minute last season. It's a blow for us. Perhaps it was the reason we didn't start this game well."
AdvertisementGetty Images SportMarch madness
Indeed, Leeds missed Ampadu more than perhaps even Farke could have imagined over the next three games. The Whites were held to a 1-1 draw at home by West Brom before they surrendered their unbeaten run when going down 1-0 to Portsmouth at Fratton Park.
Victory over Millwall briefly lifted the mood, but Leeds then arrived at Loftus Road to try and exorcise the ghosts of last season, and ultimately fell short as they battled back from two goals down to draw 2-2 with QPR. Still, that point was enough for Leeds to go into the March international break top of the Championship for the second year running.
Leeds were also boosted by Ampadu returning from injury ahead of schedule, and there was an expectation that they would end the month on a high note against Swansea. The omens looked even better when Brenden Aaronson put Leeds 1-0 up at Elland Road inside 35 seconds, with the United States midfielder poking home from close range after a goalmouth scramble.
But instead of going in for the kill thereafter, Leeds were tentative; they survived one scare when Ilan Meslier saved a penalty from Josh Tymon, but the French goalkeeper would soon turn into the villain. Just after the hour mark, Meslier fumbled a routine corner, and was punished dearly as Harry Darling slid in the equaliser. Leeds looked devoid of any kind of rhythm as Ampadu struggled and the likes of Daniel James, Manor Solomon and Joel Piroe offered next to nothing in the final third.
Swansea deserved at least a point, but incredibly, Wilfried Gnonto appeared to have stolen all three for Leeds in the 86th minute, as he drilled a first-time shot into the net just moments after coming on as a substitute. There was to be one last sting in the tail, though, as Zan Vipotnik fired past Meslier from a tight angle right at the death to send the Welsh fans in the away end into raptures.
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Meslier should have been able to parry Vipotnik's shot away from danger. It was well struck, but flew pretty much straight at the Frenchman, and when Leeds simply needed him to throw out a strong hand and push the ball away from danger, he was found wanting again.
Leeds have let too many wins slip away because of Meslier's ineptitude, including in the away fixtures against Hull City and Sunderland, and things reached a head following the Swansea draw where questions were being asked about Farke's judgement, and why on earth he was still sticking with Meslier when Karl Darlow was sat on the bench?
The ex-Norwich boss has acquiesced, however, and revealed on Thursday that he is set to make a change between the sticks for the run-in. Darlow, who made 52 Premier League appearances for Newcastle between 2014 and 2023, is the current Wales No.1, and a far more reliable pair of hands than Meslier, with the hope being that should shore up matters behind an otherwise pretty watertight defence.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the pitch, Farke would also be wise to take Aaronson out of the firing line. The American's goal against Swansea was only his second since the turn of the year, which explains why he did not make the latest U.S. squad.
Aaronson continues to fill the No.10 slot because Farke doesn't feel he has anyone else capable, having seen reported January target Emi Buendia move to Bayer Leverkusen instead. It's high time that Farke revises that stance, particularly after Gnonto's latest cameo from the bench.
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Getty Images SportUnleash Gnonto
Gnonto is the obvious alternative to Aaronson, but there is a feeling that Italian ace still hasn't convinced Farke after handing in a transfer request following Leeds' first game of the 2023-24 season. That ill-advised move led Farke to drop Gnonto for two weeks, and the 21-year-old has yet to win back the full trust of his manager to this day.
That's understandable, especially since Gnonto's application levels still fall slightly below the required standard, but he is a match-winner on his day, and Leeds could use his fresh legs. Farke's refusal to rotate his attackers backfired last term as the Whites ran out of steam, and making the same mistake would be unforgivable.
From the outside, it's obvious that the likes of Aaronson, Solomon, James and Piroe need a bit of rest, and there's no excuse for Farke not to give them it with Gnonto, Largie Ramazani, Mateo Joseph and – if he ever stays fit – Patrick Bamford waiting in the wings. At the very least, Leeds need Gnonto on the pitch for longer than 10 minutes at a time, especially in tight games that he can edge in their favour with moments of individual brilliance.